Technology Sustainability and Marketing of Battery Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Medium-Duty and Heavy-Duty Trucks and Buses

This comprehensive study projected the market introduction of battery-electric and fuel cell technologies into medium- and heavy-duty vehicle markets through 2040. The research identified optimal applications for each technology and critical success factors. Key findings include the requirement for battery costs to reach $80-100/kWh and fuel cell systems to cost $80-100/kW for cost competitiveness with diesel vehicles. The study concludes that long-term economics favor battery-electric buses and trucks over fuel cell/hydrogen options when range requirements can be met, primarily due to significantly lower energy operating costs for electricity versus hydrogen. The research provides detailed market analysis and technology roadmaps for commercial vehicle electrification in North American markets.