GridUp Design

To explore how on-road EV adoption and charging needs in the United States may progress over time, GridUp uses a two-stage modeling approach. The first stage utilizes an EV adoption model to forecast EV ownership from 2023 through 2035. The model is based on the S-curve adoption rate widely seen in other technology adoption scenarios and is calibrated to 2023 EV sales data and accounts for expected population growth. The second stage of the modeling assesses anticipated EV charging needs, using the number of EVs estimated through the stock rollover model combined with behavioral trip data to provide estimates of hourly load on the grid for the entire United States, down to a census block group level for both light-duty vehicle (LDV) and medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) segments.