Decarbonizing Medium- & Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis

This comprehensive analysis examines the economic viability of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) including battery electric and fuel cell vehicles for medium- and heavy-duty commercial applications. The study projects that ZEVs can reach total-cost-of-driving parity with conventional diesel vehicles by 2035 across all vehicle classes. Using the TEMPO model, researchers found that ZEV sales could reach 42% of MD/HD trucks by 2030 based purely on economics, with BEVs becoming cost-competitive for short-haul applications before 2030 and FCEVs competitive for long-haul applications by 2035. The analysis provides detailed projections for fleet adoption, infrastructure needs, and emissions reductions through 2050.